A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
